May
Mötesplats Rydberg - Knowing What You Don’t Know: Bayesian uncertainty quantification of theoretical uncertainties in nuclear physics
Knowing What You Don’t Know: Bayesian uncertainty quantification of theoretical uncertainties in nuclear physics
With Professor Daniel Phillips, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Ohio University, US.
Abstract
Nuclear physicists seek an accurate description of the properties of atomic nuclei, collisions between nuclei, and extreme environments such as the first few seconds of our universe or the interior of a neutron star. These situations involve nuclear-
physics models in which many particles interacting through complex forces. Principled uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential if nuclear theory is to provide accurate forecasts regarding the outcome of future experiments or the dynamics of environments such as supernovae that are inaccessible here on Earth.
In this talk I will describe two ways in which Bayesian methods are been used to quantify nuclear physics model uncertainty. First, I will show some highlights from the BUQEYE* collaboration’s work on quantifying the uncertainties in Effective Field Theory (EFT) calculations of the lightest nuclear systems. I will then explain how—in situations where no EFT has (yet) been developed--Bayesian model mixing permits a “team of rivals” approach to nuclear forecasting, since it combines the predictions of several different models in a way that leverages each one's intra-model UQ. If time permits I will also present the software tools that enable such calculations and are available through the BAND Cyberinfrastructure framework†.
* Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification: Errors for Your EFT.
† The Bayesian Analysis of Nucelar Dynamis Framework Project website.
Hybrid meeting
Please feel very welcome to join us on site in the Rydberg lecture hall at 15.15.
Fika (coffee & cookie) is served from 15.00.
You can also join Mötesplats Rydberg online via the meeting tool Zoom:
About the event
Location:
The Rydberg Lecture Hall, Department of Physics, Professorsgatan 1, Lund/ online.
Contact:
cord [dot] arnold [at] fysik [dot] lu [dot] se